NBA Fantasy: Overvalued vs. undervalued

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The NBA regular season is just a few weeks away, and fantasy drafts are in full swing. Evaluating players based on their ADP (Average Draft Position) is an invaluable tool when constructing your fantasy roster. By identifying players who are going too early or too late, you can gain an edge over the competition by avoiding reaches and finding value in later rounds. Below is a list of six overvalued and six undervalued players to monitor as your drafts commence.
Overvalued players
Kyrie Irving, Mavericks (ADP: 21)
Irving is going in the second round, and he’s a perfect example of a big-name player achieving an unearned ADP. Irving has played 70-plus games only twice in his career, and his two-year average with Dallas is just 59 games. That’s not the kind of volatility you want in the second round, especially with guards like Jalen Brunson and Tyrese Maxey going in the same range.
DeMar DeRozan, Kings (ADP: 53)
DeRozan gets a fresh start with the Kings, but he enters a crowded depth chart with a lot of competition on the roster. Granted, his playmaking ability could work wonders for his new team, but the veteran is battling Father Time in his 16th NBA season. The 34-year-old has a lot of younger talent around him, and Jalen McDaniels’ arrival in Sacramento should be a warning sign. DeRozan is better suited in the seventh or eighth round, but the fourth round is simply too high.
Jalen Duren, Pistons (ADP: 55)
Duren is ranked in the low 70s according to our rankings, and although his double-double potential (15.2 points, 12.0 rebounds) jumps off the page, drafters are a bit too enthusiastic about Detroit’s big man. In fact, most Detroit players are receiving a somewhat undeserved boost, with many believing that the team’s basement-dwelling ways are a thing of the past. His current ADP puts him ahead of guys like Nikola Vucevic and Rudy Gobert, who are more reliable centers to target. You will find that a rush to nail down centers will usually result in an ADP that doesn’t correspond with their ranking – Duren is one of those cases.
Mark Williams, Hornets (ADP: 78)
Williams’ back restricted him to only 19 games last season, and he added a new ailment to his list. A tendon strain in his foot will likely force him to miss training camp and most of the preseason. Considering his lengthy injury history, the Hornets will bring him along slowly. The team looked to Nick Richards amid Williams’ injury last season, so they know there’s a reliable backup to lean on. Investing in a center early is a wise strategy, but don’t reach for Williams this soon, even if you’re desperate.
Chris Paul, Spurs (ADP: 98)
Although Paul is currently atop the depth chart for San Antonio, the aging veteran is going far too early. He’s best suited as a target in later rounds, as Tre Jones will likely platoon with Paul often. The 38-year-old appeared in only 58 games last season and averaged a career-low 26.4 minutes per game, primarily with the second unit. With Jones in the fold and 2024 first-rounder Stephon Castle angling for playing time, Paul’s outlook doesn’t warrant his current ADP.
Bobby Portis, Bucks (ADP: 113)
Portis is a reliable handcuff pick if you drafted Giannis Antetokounmpo, but offseason moves signal potential limitations for the veteran. The acquisition of Taurean Prince will steal some interior usage away from Portis, and Tyler Smith is an exciting 6-foot-9 prospect who enjoyed a productive tenure in the G League. Based on these additions, Portis should go much lower.
Also consider: Precious Achiuwa, Knicks (ADP: 147)
Undervalued players
Mikal Bridges, Knicks (ADP: 59)
The tandem of Jalen Brunson and Bridges in the Knicks’ backcourt should be an electric combination, but drafters are taking the former Net a bit too late. The addition of Karl-Anthony Towns and Bridges to a core of quality players gives the Knicks the best overall lineup they’ve had in recent memory. The change of scenery merits a pick in the third round, but he’s even more valuable if you can find him at this current ADP.
Kristaps Porzingis, Celtics (ADP: 92)
Porzingis’ foot history is cause for concern, but he’s scheduled to return in December. A typical strategy for players who enter the season injured is to utilize your IR, thus saving a draft spot immediately. The metrics indicate that drafters are waiting too long to stash him relative to his potential value. If you’ve found rock-solid centers before the 7th round, Porzingis should still be out there, and his eventual return could be a tantalizing option to trade away to address other concerns on your roster.
Draymond Green, Warriors (ADP: 103)
Green’s 2023-24 season was tarnished by multiple suspensions. The scuffle with Phoenix’s Jusuf Nurkic cost him a month off the court, and Green’s drop is warranted based on the potential volatility. Still, the Warriors’ starting power forward is too good to miss at his current ADP if you look at the numbers. He’ll rarely wow you as a scorer, but excellent results in secondary categories are difficult to pass up. After seven rounds of building a steady core, finding Green to complement your roster is a safe bet.
Aaron Gordon, Nuggets  (ADP: 113)
Although other Nuggets will grab the headlines, Gordon is an excellent support player who has a dependable floor. He’s going roughly 20 spots lower than our custom rankings would indicate, and while he isn’t a flashy pick, the 28-year-old should be an immediate click if you find him after the 10th round.
Marcus Smart, Grizzlies (ADP: 128)
Since Smart played only 20 games last season, we haven’t seen the team’s potential with him in the lineup. Putting Smart alongside Ja Morant and moving Desmond Bane to the wing could be Memphis’ best recipe for success, but the public seems to doubt his ability to garner enough minutes to be worth it. Smart’s injuries are a bit of a concern, but the 29-year-old has plenty of gas left in the tank and could emerge as one of the best surprises of the season. He’s experienced a huge ADP drop and likely will be available in the ninth round.
Scoot Henderson, Trail Blazers (ADP: 134)
Guards like Marcus Smart and Dennis Schroder are routinely going ahead of Henderson, and selling the second-year player short could be a costly error. Drafted as the heir apparent to Damian Lillard, Henderson played only 62 games amid a season plagued with injuries throughout the lineup. Despite the team’s potential outcome, Henderson will be given every opportunity to prove his worthiness as the point guard of the future in Portland, and he flashed some of his enormous potential last season when given enough minutes.